[wanabidii] Syria is not Libya or Iraq; the country is much more complex

Never mind Henry Ford's characterisation of history as 'bunk', many
people are astounded by the inability of tyrants to learn their
history lessons! Oblivious of how Col. Muammar Gaddafi of Libya went
down with a bullet in his head, like the fictitious character 'Paco
Pistols Scaramanga' the Spectre Organisation hitman in the James Bond
spy thriller and film 'The Man with a Golden Gun', and Saddam
Hussein's death by a hangman's rope probably specially designed to
decapitate the victim, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria refuses to
budge while there is still a chance for him to vote with his feet. The
Russians were strong allies of his father Hafez al-Assad whom he
succeeded as leader of Syria and would probably give him a new
identity and a dacha in the Russian countryside, complete with KGB
[Komitet gosudarstvennoi bezopasnosti] guards providing security

Syria is not Iraq or Libya and the Kennedy, Bush or Sarkozy urge to
save the world may no longer be in fashion; but with Western countries
expelling the remaining Syrian diplomats from their capitals after the
massacre of Houla and the sabers of civil war rattling free from the
sheaths and glittering in the mid-east sun, the Damascus countdown is
nigh! The real reason for taking too long to save civilians from being
turned into cannon fodder and handling the tragedy with caution is not
because there is no oil to loot but because Syria is complex. The
Russians may not fight for Syria or the Americans risk an inadvertent
nuclear war with the former. Syria's historical military relationship
with the Russians and its strategic importance to them vis-à-vis
American economic and strategic interests in the region is not only a
diplomatic game of poker but Chess, and the Queens, Russia and USA,
cannot be put at risk.
Syria once nearly caused a nuclear war! According to Russell Warren
Howe, a specialist in foreign affairs and defence, the world came
close to Armageddon when on October 8, 1973 Israeli's northern front
commander, Major General Yitshak Hoffi, informed Israeli defence
minister General Moshe Dayan that Syrian tanks were closing-in on his
positions at the Israeli-held Golan Heights. According to him, a US
intelligence report reveals that at midnight of that day, Dayan
obtained permission from Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir to
nuclearise 13 Jericho Missiles but this remained a secret until
October 12 when a US Airforce SR-71 Spyplane on routine patrol over
the Negev detected nuclear activity setting off a diplomatic and
military bustle in Washington and Moscow.

According to Article III of the Accidental Nuclear Warfare Agreement
signed by the USSR and USA on September 30, 1971, the two must consult
to ascertain whether a mad man is not responsible for triggering the
nuclear alert system. Using the 'Direct Communication Link' popularly
known as the 'hotline', President Nixon telexed a message to Soviet
Leader Brezhnev informing him of what the SR-71 had discovered
whereupon the latter agreed to provide nuclear warheads for the
Russian-made Scuds that formed a protective cordon around Cairo. The
warheads were ferried through the Black Sea, the Bosporus and the Sea
of Marmara and were detected through the Dardanelles and subsequently
placed on Egyptian Scuds ready to retaliate against Israeli strikes
but by then the military situation had shifted in favour of Israel and
the need to nuke its perennially hostile neighbours had receded.

If all this leaves room for thought about the real and imagined
reasons for caution, it shows how the country, renowned for its
massive imports of Russian armaments, fits into the global balance of
terror. Because the saving of Syria has taken too long, the nightmare
spectre of a full-scale civil war that may consume the Middle-East and
leave the carcass to be scavenged by sectarian militias, terrorists
and predatory neighbours is now looming large over the country.

Mr Baligidde is the director, School of Diplomacy, Governance and
International Studies, Ugand

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